Dr Gene tells me that the U.S. debt-debate is a red-herring. “It’s a distraction from what’s really happening to the economy,” he says. “The S&P didn’t downgrade our credit rating because of the level of the debt ..it was in response to political gridlock. We’ve had federal deficits throughout history ..especially during wartime ..and the markets didn’t suffer because of it.” He believes that the debt-level is modest and probably even necessary given current economic conditions. So, what’s the problem..? “I believe it’s really bad timing on the part of republicans to be asserting political ideology right now ..that and the President failing to assert his powers of office. He could have easily raised the federal debt in time to meet it’s obligations. The 14th amendment allows him to do that without approval from congress. You see. Bill ..it’s not the size of the debt, it’s the government not making payment on the debt that shakes up foreign investors, S&P and the folks on Wall Street.”
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Dr Gene
Dr Gene tells me that the U.S. debt-debate is a red-herring. “It’s a distraction from what’s really happening to the economy,” he says. “The S&P didn’t downgrade our credit rating because of the level of the debt ..it was in response to political gridlock. We’ve had federal deficits throughout history ..especially during wartime ..and the markets didn’t suffer because of it.” He believes that the debt-level is modest and probably even necessary given current economic conditions. So, what’s the problem..? “I believe it’s really bad timing on the part of republicans to be asserting political ideology right now ..that and the President failing to assert his powers of office. He could have easily raised the federal debt in time to meet it’s obligations. The 14th amendment allows him to do that without approval from congress. You see. Bill ..it’s not the size of the debt, it’s the government not making payment on the debt that shakes up foreign investors, S&P and the folks on Wall Street.”
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3 comments:
Bill,
I have another take:
http://relevantscience.blogspot.com/2011/08/what-does-it-mean-to-be-downgraded.html
“When events with low probability happen ..” it is definitely most informative ..! (Bayes theorem may also be helpful) When conditional probabilities fail ..it’s time to take into account the probability of uncertainty. You’re right ..American political life is in trouble. Dr Gene would agree. Conventional wisdom no longer applies. Interesting to see you’re exploring alternatives based on principles of Shannon.
Concretely, I think Theoretical Physics is basically successful phenomenology. Cherry picking mathematical facts to fit experimental results.
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