Divide and be conquered

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear defeat. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you are assured defeat in every battle.” - Sun Tzu 

 The war in Iraq started with a misconception showing how little we knew the enemy. The outcome was unpredictable. ISIS is the result. Our response to ISIS has been divisive. We’ve attacked ourselves, accused the Commander in Chief of complicity and perpetuated myths instead of promoting unity and understanding. Trump is the result.

Unfettered and alive

“Mothers and fathers throughout the land / Don't criticize what you can’t understand / Your sons and your daughters are beyond your command / The old road is rapidly aging / Please get out of the new one if you can’t lend a hand / For the times they are a-changing.” 

The way I see it, I have every reason to feel optimistic. Young people are revitalizing the land. Men and women in equal measure. And they’re not doing it the same way as before. I see something different. More like a fusion of local culture with global ideas. Using modern technology. Bringing together communities of like-minded people faster and less fettered than before. Whether or not this is sustainable is too soon to tell. At present I’d say it’s inexplicable. More like life according to Lao Tzu: “The way that can be spoken is not the way / Nameless is the origin of heaven and earth.” Even in Tijuana, young entrepreneurs and artists are reclaiming the streets ..giving wide berth to the adverse conditions bestowed by prior generations. They have more in common with their counterparts in Mexico City, Los Angeles and other metropolises. In L.A, tech firms founded by women are replenishing the city. Unimpeded by the Bay Area’s male-dominated programmer culture, they’re using their expertise in retail, entertainment, advertising and media to build digital companies whose products and services are aimed at other women. I suppose if you’re stuck in prior ways of doing things you won’t have as much reason to feel optimistic.

Adaptability

I’m sitting on the deck sipping coffee and scanning the paper for items of interest. I see where they’re accusing Gov. Jan Brewer of ‘flip flopping’ and zero-in. I cringe at this term. Apparently she changed her position on an issue. Ordinarily politics doesn’t interest me much but when politicians start making claims about the psyche .. I take notice. To me, the ability to focus and shift perspective with equal ease is an admirable quality [ link ]. Others call it a sign of inconsistency and weakness. Flip-flopping is not a flattering term. However, sticking to a single position must mean tuning-out a lot of information that doesn’t conform. I think Greek Philosophers call this a Procrustean solution ..the practice of tailoring data to fit a preconceived idea [ link ]. During periods of rapid change ..it doesn’t sound like much of an asset. Probably the reason Senator Russell Pearce was recalled in 2011.

Peer-mediated buzz

   James Fowler, a professor of psychology at UCSD, found that messages from our peers are more likely to initiate action than messages delivered by a political committee [ link ]. Last year, Obama’s reelection committee learned the same thing. They developed a system that leverages database technology and social-media to deliver their messages. In an instant, this system allows them to:

1. mobilize grassroots support for White House concerns 
2. provide White House support for local concerns

Apparently they took an extra step, conducted surveys ..and learned that nothing energizes participation better than ‘reciprocity’. Brilliant use of technology combined with Obama’s experience as a community organizer. Politically I’m independent and pretty damn naïve ..but I can see why this might give Republicans cause for alarm.

Cultural para-stimuli

I’m looking for a better definition of the term ‘cultural para-stimuli’. I have only the vaguest idea that it’s some kind of mysterious force that transmits culture. I start out with the prefix ‘para’ ..which means to impart a subsidiary role to a word or agent. Paramedic for instance. Another meaning of ‘para’ is to impart an altered role to a word or agent. Parasail for instance. I think that’s the one I’m looking for. Para-stimuli are stimuli that go beyond the action of a stimulus on the nervous system. Usually it’s an alteration that results from repeated exposure. For example, ‘sugar’ produces an immediate sensation of sweet that becomes sickening after repeated exposure. Put it together and what it says is that ‘cultural para-stimuli’ are stimuli resulting from social observations that produce alterations in the nervous system that go beyond their immediate reaction. Why do need a better definition of this ..? Perhaps because of what it says about the fashion industry and why we so often choose style over substance. Perhaps because of what it says about my choice of partners. I don’t know. What I do know is what neuroscientists tell me. Repeated exposure to ‘what’s cool’ in a peer group lowers tolerance for ‘what’s appropriate’ in the amygdala. I know the word ‘amygdala’ sounds foreign ..like something from outer space. It refers to a part of the brain that sets thresholds for impulses ..or ‘impulse-control’. Without an amygdala, animals veer helplessly from one inappropriate feeling or action to another. Boredom where there should be fear .. sexual arousal where there is no provocation. What they’ve seen is that animals with an intact amygdala respond just like animals without an amygdala merely by observing or being in the same vicinity. It may be due to sight, sound, smell, whatever ..but exposure to one group serves as cultural para-stimuli to the other group. Repeated exposure to ‘what’s cool’ can actually lower discrimination for things that may otherwise be considered shocking. I’m thinking of things like lewd conduct in public that could be considered something along the lines of a ‘sex offense’. Something that could easily be done at considerably less risk in the privacy of one’s own home. Another thing that comes to mind is ‘mob mentality’ ..the predatory behavior I sometimes see at soccer matches or in crowds celebrating the Rose Parade in California. Makes ‘cultural para-stimuli’ sound like ‘zona rosa’ for communal decadence, which, I don’t know ..may say a little something about my own behavior at rock festivals.

Cartel grows

This story is more about my capacity for self-delusion.

DEA agents investigating Cartels  growing marijuana on California forestland turned up beer kegs, propane stoves, poachers and fieldworkers living in tents. Many of them weren’t even sure where the hell they were ( “Texas ..?” ). Turns out it wasn’t the Cartels after all. Mostly itinerant farmers all the way from Michoacan who were trying to avoid the Cartels and move closer to market. When I heard this I went “I could have told them that ..it’s well-known that Cartels are more into smuggling than farming” and “Michoacan farmers are the ones with the know-how and perseverance to set up camp and live in the woods like that.” Fact is ..I could have told them nothing of the sort. I’d been following this story and I too believed that Mexican Cartels were infiltrating California. I could of only told them otherwise after they’d already told me. Armed with this new information ..I quickly went back and revised my memory for things I knew before. Kind of like revisionist history ..giving me a false sense that ‘I knew it all along’ ..arrogant asshole that I am.

Doomsday

In 19th Century China, one man claiming to be the brother of Jesus Christ started the Taiping Rebellion ..a bloody civil war, which led to the fall of the last Chinese dynasty. More recently, a fellow by the name of Zhao Weishan founded a movement known as The Eastern Light, which has evolved into a group called The Almighty God. They have over 1 million members and prophesize the end of the world on December 21, 2012. Because China has no established religion, people tend to believe in wild rumors. Sales of survival pods have been brisk. Last Friday, one of their members ran through a schoolyard and slashed 23 schoolchildren with a machete. They attribute this act to someone “ ..under the influence of doomsday beliefs.”  I guess delusion knows no boundary.

A parable

Once upon a time in a world not long ago ..a succession of countries held sway over the planet. A great war ensued and two countries were left standing. The two countries remained in contention for nearly half a century. Then one let it’s infrastructure decay and economy falter while pouring it’s national treasure into the military. They became stuck in an unending war in Afghanistan. The other country watched in amazement while their former adversary became weaker and weaker and then totally disintegrated. Amazement gave way to arrogance. Arrogance gave way to recklessness and they made the most puzzling decision. They chose to follow the same path that lead to the downfall of their former adversary. Moral …? I guess strength doesn’t always override poor decision-making.

The curious case of Nathan Fletcher

 

Today I read the curious case of Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher (R-San Diego). He co-sponsored a bill with Governor Jerry Brown that even Republican lawmakers thought was a good idea. He wasn’t prepared for what happened next. Read on ~> [ link ]

Sgt Bales vs War

Recent information blows my PTSD theory. Sgt Bales wasn’t suffering the effects of multiple deployments. He re-up’d and saw the military as his calling. It sounds like a deliberate attack. I have a new theory. The only sane response to an irrational and life-threatening situation is to act in an equally irrational manner. U.S. soldiers are trained to fight with ‘discrimination’ and regard for civilian life. However, they’re constantly put into battle with an enemy that fights without such civility. The Taliban are known to place little value on the lives of civilians. The Afghan people live in fear of the Taliban, but the Taliban are there all the time and they know they’ll continue being there after we’re gone. They side with them out of necessity. As a result, U.S. soldiers are operating in a region “..riddled with mistrust and hostility.” In an effort to deprive Taliban fighters of cover, U.S. soldiers routinely bulldoze houses, orchards, and farms. This fuels more hostility. As a result, residents regularly assist the Taliban. They help plant IED’s and U.S. soldiers often find bomb-making material in their homes. The war in Afghanistan has put our troops in an un-winnable situation. I deplore the killing of innocent women and children (any killing for that matter) ..but the civilian population is harbouring and assisting the enemy and the Taliban have no problem getting their compliance out of the barrel of a gun. This is no doubt the case in the Panjwayi district where Sgt Bales and his squad were operating. Perhaps the only way Sgt Bales felt he could deliver a message of strength was to act with equal ruthlessness. It’s been seen before. During the My Lai Massacre in Vietnam, orders were given to shoot civilians  “They're all V.C., now go and get them” [ link ]. Instead of prosecuting Sgt Bales, perhaps it’s the U.S. war in Afghanistan that should stand trial.

Yesterday's theories

“By all appearances, Ocampo had deep affinity for the homeless. He sacrificed for them and even put their needs ahead of his own. Those close to him say the killings do not match the character of the person they knew. ”

It’s a well-known phenomenon that people often interpret other people’s actions differently than the way others interpret their own actions. Typically observers attribute them to character while the observed attributes them to the demands of a situation. Friends of Ocampo, who recently returned from Iraq, say that he often gave what little money he had to help homeless people while members of his family went without. The people he was living with just before the killings say he was having paranoid hallucinations and seeing threats around every corner. This leads to my theory about Ocampo. I know that Marine training instills a show of stoicism in the face of threat. What others saw as a devoted brother picking up his kid sister from the library every day ..he saw as a military action through hostile territory. It’s not hard to imagine homeless people on the streets of Orange County resembling insurgents on the roadsides of Iraq to a returning veteran. His solution may have been to eliminate them to keep his sister safe ..as well as avenge the recent death of a close friend in Iraq. 

Revision: Today’s newspaper reports that Ocampo never saw action in Iraq. His job was to inspect the bodies of casualties when they were flown in from combat. Orange County officials have another theory. They say he was on a ‘serial thrill-kill’ spree ..enjoying the sensationalism of press coverage and increasing the stakes with each attack. Perhaps civilian life just wasn’t as surreal. Well, so much for yesterday’s theories. Shows how insubstantial they can be.

Deception detection

“An operation called Fast and Furious allowed weapons to be sold to gun smugglers in the U.S. so they could be traced to drug cartels in Mexico. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, which ran the operation, lost track of the weapons ..one of which was used in the fatal shooting of Border Patrol Agent Brian Terry near Tucson in December 2010.”   LA Times 

In his deposition to congress, Kenneth Melson, former head of ATF, says he was “..never advised” by his staff that they were involved in a program of selling illegal arms along the U.S./Mexican border. “My chief of staff never came in and told me either, and he’s on the same damn floor as I am.” Which leads me to suspect a cover-up. The phrase “I was never told” does not automatically register as “I didn’t know” in my suspicious brain. What I do detect is his use of pragmatic implication to deceive me into thinking that he didn’t know. Furthermore, not once in his deposition did he ever come out and actually say: “I did not know what my department was doing” ..which would have sounded incredibly stupid. So, instead .. he uses phrases like “I was never advised ..” or “no one ever told me ..” not only to avoid sounding stupid but to help him dodge any future accusations of perjury and obstruction of justice [link]. Members of the Justice Department coached him well. Now they too are saying that they were never told about the Fast and Furious program ..and cite his testimony as evidence. Which leads me to believe that they too were fully aware of what was going on. Lack of oversight ..I don’t think so. What I do think is that Fast and Furious was directed by the U.S. State Department and carried out, with full cooperation, by the ATF. When it resulted in the unfortunate shooting of a border patrol agent ..the operation became public; and the cover-up began. In order to conceal involvement by the U.S. government, Justice officials immediately began advising ATF against full disclosure ..telling them “it is a long-standing policy of the Department of Justice that we don’t talk about ongoing cases.” Which leads me to believe that the Department of Justice is also in the business of obstruction of justice.

On authority

About this time last year my father and I were discussing the Arizona law giving police authority to detain individuals suspected of being illegal immigrants. SB 1070 gives law enforcement officers the right to do this, but only in cases of “..lawful stop, detention or arrest.” My father is a Tucson resident and agrees, saying, “the law is the law.” I can’t argue that. It’s just that the police have a history of abusing authority, especially when it targets members of an ethnic minority. So, I have a theory that says whenever you give anyone that kind of authority, it will be abused. My father thinks I’m being overdramatic.

Turns out the Maricopa County Sheriff’s department did not disappoint. They interpreted the new law to mean it’s OK to launch sweeps of Phoenix communities in search of illegal immigrants ..with or without probable cause. Forget the part that says “during lawful stop, arrest or detention.” They essentially made foreign-looking sufficient cause for police action, which oversteps their bounds and violates our constitution rights. My father believes I come from a generation that doesn’t respect authority. I believe I come from a generation that doesn’t trust authority. So, way to go Maricopa ..you have helped make my case, and reinforced my distrust in authority, especially in cases where it’s based on fear and discrimination.

Parsing Nixon

The transcript of Nixon’s testimony about Watergate became public Thursday, providing a detailed view of Nixon - combative, defensive and mindful of his place in history [link]. As an exercise in deception-detection, I suggested we parse a short passage of Nixon’s testimony. We limited it to the response Nixon gave to a specific question asked by federal prosecutors. We examined the implications Nixon made in order to give prosecutors the impression that he was acting as Chief Executive and giving high-level ‘directives’ to his staff ..and not ordering the Watergate break-in. When prosecutors asked about White House efforts to target Lawrence O'Brien (Chairman of the Democratic National Committee) and the events leading up to the break-in at his office in the Watergate complex, Nixon replied:

“I do not recall suggesting Mr. O’Brien files be checked ..I only suggested that in this campaign, we should be as effective in conducting our investigations as they (the Democrats) had been in conducting their investigations.”

[ I only suggested .. ] implies no direct orders were given. Although prosecutors may infer ‘tacit approval’, without knowing what was going on in the minds of the White House staff at the time; prosecutors couldn’t go there. That information was only available in discussions leading up to this point. But the previous 18 minutes were erased from the White House tape. *See Footnote*

[conducting our investigation .. ] implies they were only discussing an equitable response to what Democrats were doing during the campaign. Since there was no evidence of criminal activity on the part of Democrats, prosecutors could only conclude Nixon wasn’t suggesting anything inappropriate.

It’s clear Nixon was using pragmatic implications [link] ..a trick that lawyers routinely recommend to their clients. He could deny culpability but, at the same time, avoid perjury in the advent investigators found evidence that he actually did order the break-in. Instead of denying it outright, he says is he was making what amounts to a ‘suggestion’ that they conduct an ‘equitable investigation’. If it comes out later that he gave orders, he cannot be accused of perjury for the inferences federal prosecutors made in response to his statements. In other words, implications are not grounds for perjury. To the end, Nixon played the role of an attorney trying to create ‘reasonable doubt’ in the minds of his jurors (Historians).

* Footnote: Congress actually did infer that, by omission, the 18-minute gap probably contained incriminating information turning Nixon’s statement into a criminal act. This is what led to a vote of impeachment by over two-thirds of the House.

Deceptive advertsing

Response to an article in the LA Times titled~>

[FBI says Iran planned to attack Washington]

“Iran’s military elite hired members of a Mexican drug cartel to assassinate a Saudi ambassador in Washington DC” all I have to do is read this statement out loud and it comes across sounding pretty ludicrous. 

I can’t believe an elite military force in Iran would be foolish enough to hire a Mexican drug cartel to pull-off an assassination of this magnitude. First, it’s not in the interest of the cartel whose biggest concern is safeguarding the cash-flow they earn from smuggling drugs – covertly – into the US. They’re hardly known for political assassinations outside of Mexico where it’s ordinarily done to protect smuggling operations. Second, why would a drug cartel, with profits estimated in the billions, be interested in earning a few extra bucks by detonating a bomb inside Washington DC ..? They risk blowing their cover and incurring the wrath of the US, which is where their business interests lie. I don’t believe they care a whole heck of a lot about relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. What I do suspect, however, is the intention of the US government. It gives them a good cover story for bombing Iranian nuclear power plants, something which Saudi Arabia has been expressing a great deal of interest in lately.

Steve Jobs

It’s not a new management technique suitable for indoctrination. He was an old-school authoritarian. His message was simply to stay open, receptive and enthusiastic about new ideas in whatever field is closest to your heart. He chose to promote the right idea for software engineering. He invested in Mitch Kapor’s open architecture, which is component-based and extendable. Qualities that got it on the net (as apps) ..then on mobile platforms (as smartphones). Component-based software development is more toy-like and fun ..and it adapts easily to different platforms. The idea is, you don’t change components that already work, you pull them out of a library then adopt them to do whatever you want by creating an interface-component. Kind of like tinker-toys. Component-based software runs simulator-like (as it does at Pixar) - simulating things like an exchange floor with buyers, sellers, transactions and shipping methods (think Amazon). His message was to be open-minded, observe how things work in nature and real-world systems ..then double-down on technology that mimics those observations. That’s the best bet for future innovation.

Reading behavior

When I make a conscious effort, I can kind of catch a glimpse of whatever’s going on inside my head that helps me grasp the meaning of what I’m reading and relate it to other things I know about. It may be part of my training, but ..what I’m seeing is not unique to me. It is a process that’s common to everyone. It’s universal. It’s been observed and documented by linguists all over the world. As I read, I’m building an ‘event-chain’. An event-chain is made up of information from prior-sentences, which I get from working-memory, and prior-experience, which I get from long-term memory. When I read about the rebel invasion of Tripoli this week, I immediately built a relatively simple event-chain based on a limited set of events stored in long-term memory. It looked something like this:

However, as I read further ..I discovered this was not the case. The invasion was the result of Kadafi’s own undoing. Now my event-chain looks something like this:

Suddenly NATO air strikes don’t seem quite so important anymore. My first reading was in error. It doesn’t take into account a whole heap of events I didn’t know about. My second event-chain probably doesn’t either. However, I still come away with the feeling that I’m sufficiently informed, which leads me to another observation: I resist yielding to the probability of the unknown, which is always greater than what I can fit into an event-chain. However, an event-chain is about all that I can fit into my pea-brain.

Sovereignty for sale

They say the worst thing you can do in an economic crises is panic. However, it’s kinda’ hard not to when I’m sitting here with a sliding sensation in my gut, like the wheels of my car have lost traction on an icy road. Only I’m not in a car, I’m sitting at my desk. They say that the world’s largest communist country, China, has now become the world’s biggest creditor. This, in turn, gives them the right to demand the U.S. surrender it’s military and social programs that are putting the value of their biggest asset at risk .. U.S. Treasury bonds and other dollar-backed securities. I think it’s time for me to make an appointment to see Dr. Gene.

false memories

I have a confession to make. I’m just as guilty of self-delusion as the next (link). The other day someone asked me if I had been ‘surprised’ by the dot com crash of 2001. I was working in the computer industry back then and believed it was the ‘wave of the future’. So yeah, I was surprised. However, that’s not what I told him. I told him no, I wasn’t surprised ..and went on to explain how I had seen it coming. “Companies weren’t ready to abandon their way of doing business for the promise of e-commerce” I said “..even our own clients were backing away from some of the ambitious shit we were proposing.” Funny thing is, I wasn’t lying ..not intentionally anyway. That’s actually how I remember it. On closer inspection it’s clear to me what’s happening. I had replaced memories of what I was thinking before the crash with my accounts of it afterwards ..creating the illusion that I had seen it coming. What’s more, now that I think about it ..another fucked-up consequence of underestimating the surprise I felt was how it had kept me from recognizing warning signs of the next ‘big thing’ ..which was real estate before the market crash of 2007.

Reading behavior

“Our universities deliver education in English ..[so] we should teach reading in the language that will be most useful.” Letter to the LATimes re. dual-language immersion ~ [link]

As reasonable as this may sound ..it is not consistent with the way nature prepares children to read. Nor is it supported by the state-of-the-art in neuroscience and language development. The language children are going to need in college isn’t as important for reading education as their native language. Learning to read in one’s native language is the most effective route to fluency. That’s because learning to read starts out as a process of linking the sound of words on paper to their meaning in memory [link]. This puts children from non-English backgrounds at a disadvantage when trying to read English first. They have no ‘phonic memory’ for it. That’s what accounts for the high percentage of high school students in the U.S. who cannot read or write well. Furthermore, it is widely known that reading fluency in one language is easily transferable to another [link]. It only makes sense to teach children to read in a way that assures early success in one language and boosts their chances of future achievement in other languages.